Experts warn of deadly consequences of North Korea, Russia strengthening ties

2024-10-07 00:13:27      点击：542

Russian President Vladimir Putin, second left, greets North Korea's delegation prior to his talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, in Vladivostok, in this April 25, 2019, file photo. AP-Yonhap

When it comes to nuclear bombs, Putin has much to offer to Kim

By Jung Min-ho

At a time when many countries have been distancing themselves from Russia due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, South Korea's nearest neighbor has been doing the exact opposite.

Other than Syria, North Korea is the only country that has recognized the independence of two Russia-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine in a show of support for Moscow's war. A U.S. intelligence report shows North Korea is also planning to sell Russia millions of rockets and artillery shells.

The improving relations between the two allies could kill any remaining hopes of achieving the denuclearization of North Korea, which announced its new nuclear weapons law earlier this month, according to experts.

"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has clearly showed that he wants to improve relations with Russia, which can do much to help. So far, Russia has shown little interest. But pushed into a corner amid the war, Russia's President Vladimir Putin might respond," Hwang Il-do, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said during a forum at the Korea Institute for National Unification's (KINU) office in Seoul, Wednesday.

Much of North Korea's new nuclear law appears to have copied Russia's 2020 document on nuclear weapons use policy, he said. That includes "Dead Hand," a Cold War-era automatic nuclear weapons-control system first constructed by the Soviet Union.

The North Korean law calls for "automatic" and "immediate" nuclear strikes if the country's leadership or command and control systems are threatened. But North Korea is seeking to strengthen relations with powerful allies that share a common threat: the U.S. A new Cold War climate could provide a shield for the North from the united global response to its nuclear issues, experts warn.

Russia, one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and one of the nuclear powers, can offer much to North Korea, including blocking additional international sanctions against the North or supporting it in constructing a nuclear strategy.

For example, Russia's help ― or just signs of it ― can make North Korea's Dead Hand strategy more credible and fearful, according to Cheong Wook-sik, director of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute.

"While South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are capable of observing its military activities, such as missile launches, North Korea is unable to assess 'an imminent threat' … When the three allies can observe it with a telescope, North Korea is effectively blind," he said.

A formal military alliance between Russia, China and North Korea was once unimaginable, but the war in Ukraine has certainly raised the possibility, said Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow at the KINU.

"I think the chances are not high for now. But who knows what will happen? North Korea is closing the distance from Russia by offering what it needs: items for its political rhetoric," Hyun said. "Russia may be struggling in the war, but we should not forget it can and will play an important role in Korea's security and peace … My advice is that South Korean politicians should not make a mistake by excluding Russia from the efforts for peace on the Korean Peninsula."